Capability · Predictive layer

Predictive pricing.
The engine predicts — the formula decides.

Most "predictive pricing" predicts the price itself — a number nobody can decompose. Pricera predicts what no formula and no actuals can supply instead: the yield of a configuration never run, the lead time a line can actually hold, the chance a deal is won. Models learn from the systems you already run; predictions arrive as labelled inputs and advisory signals; the price stays a formula your team owns and can replay.

The distinction

Predict the inputs, never the price

ML that outputs prices — the decider

  • Predicts the number itself; the reasoning is hidden
  • Sales can't decompose it; auditors can't replay it
  • Optimizes its objective — elasticity, margin targets — not your contract
  • When it drifts, nobody can see where or why

ML that feeds governed models — Pricera

  • Predicts what no actuals exist for yet: yield on unseen configs, lead time, win probability
  • Every prediction lands labelled — which model, which data, how confident
  • Proposed values pass the same reference cases and approvals as human edits
  • The price stays a readable formula your team owns

The rule from AI-governed pricing holds: AI works inside the model, never above it. Prediction is no exception — a predicted yield is still an input, and the formula still computes the price.

The data

Learns from the systems you already run

No new pipeline to build, no data-science team to hire. Pricera connects to the systems that already record your operations and trains prediction models on your own tables — SKUs, spec text, missing values and all.

ERP & orders

Actual costs, volumes and realized margins per product, customer and region — the ground truth every costing model is judged against.

MES & production

Real yields, scrap and cycle times per configuration, line and material — so the cost of a variant is learned, not guessed.

CRM & quoting

Wins, losses, discounts and deal cycle times per segment — the evidence behind every quote-side signal.

Finance & costing

True product and customer cost via CostCtrl — time-driven and multi-stage ABC that keeps predicted margins honest.

The predictions

What it predicts — and where it lands

Every prediction has a governed destination. Inputs land inside the model; signals land beside the quote; flags land in a review queue.

Yield & scrap

Expected yield for a configuration never run — inferred from runs that resemble it.

→ labelled input · inside the cost tree

Lead time

Realistic delivery time per configuration and current plant load.

→ governed input · expedite & capacity logic

Input forecasting

Index and tariff trajectories over a contract term — forward inputs for LTA quotes.

→ proposed input · long-term agreements

Win probability

The likelihood a quote converts at its governed price, from deal history.

→ advisory signal · beside the quote line

Quote effort

The estimation work an RFQ will take — and whether similar quotes converted.

→ advisory signal · bid / no-bid triage

Renewal risk

Contract customers showing churn signals before the renewal window.

→ trigger · re-quote & retention workflow
Same rails

Every prediction is governed like every edit

Labelled on the quote

A predicted value inside a calculation is marked as predicted, with the evidence behind it. The waterfall shows predicted_yield 91.4% — never a silent number.

Gated before publish

Proposed inputs land in draft model versions. Reference cases re-run, a pricing owner approves — or nothing reaches sales.

Advisory, never automatic

Signals like win probability inform the seller; they never rewrite the price. The logic that decides is the logic you can read.

quote Q-1043 · extrusion_costplus v4
  billet (LME + prem)     €1.18 /m
  + press_rate (22 MN)    + €0.74 /m
  + predicted_yield 91.4% · learned · 4 213 similar runs  − €0.09 /m
  = cost_total             €2.65 /m
  × margin (+18%)        + €0.48 /m
  final_price             €3.13 /m  · win prob 0.62 · advisory
In the product

How prediction runs inside Pricera

1 · ConnectPricera reads the systems that hold your history — ERP, MES, CRM, finance — on a schedule or on demand.
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2 · LearnPrediction models train on your own tables — product, process and deal data, messy fields included.
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3 · PredictNew configuration, new quote, landed actuals: predictions are produced where they're needed — cost, yield, outcome.
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4 · GovernedInputs land labelled in drafts behind tests and approvals; signals sit beside quotes. The formula sets the price.

The result is the insight people want from ML pricing without the accountability gap: predictions that sharpen every quote while the number that goes out the door stays a formula your team can defend.

FAQ

Predictive pricing, answered

Does machine learning set prices in Pricera?

No. Machine learning predicts what no formula and no actuals can supply — yields on unseen configurations, lead times, deal outcomes. The price itself is always computed by the explicit, versioned model your team owns and can replay.

Is this the same as AI price optimization?

No — it is the complement, not the category. Price optimizers output recommended prices that cannot be decomposed or defended. Pricera's predictions output inputs and signals you can inspect; the number on the quote comes from the governed formula, with its derivation intact.

How much data do we need to start predicting?

Less than most teams expect. Prediction models are trained per tenant on your own tables — a few years of order lines, production runs or quotes is typically enough to be useful, and accuracy improves as new data lands. Sparse areas simply stay formula-driven until evidence accumulates.

Can a predicted value be audited later?

Yes. Predicted inputs are labelled on the quote and pinned with the model version used, so a historical quote replays with the same prediction context it was priced on. Nothing enters the waterfall silently.

Which systems can Pricera connect to?

ERP and order management for actuals and volumes, MES and production systems for yields and cycle times, CRM for quote outcomes, and finance for true cost — including CostCtrl for activity-based product and customer costing. Connection details are scoped per deployment.

Bring us your hardest pricing case.

We rebuild it as a tested, versioned Pricera model — same numbers, now traceable — before you commit to anything.